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Báo cáo đặc biệt

Could the post-UK elections market moves resemble 1997 and 2010?

Thursday's UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves General election in sight The UK general election will be held this Thursday, July 4, the day that the US will be celebrating its 248th anniversary from the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.
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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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Is France headed for political stalemate and how bad is this for the euro?

Far-right National Rally party maintains lead ahead of June 30 first round of votes But can it secure an absolute majority as left-wing alliance makes progress? A hung parliament might be the worst outcome for the euro France in political turmoil President Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative vote hot on the heels of the European elections came as a complete shock not only in France but also across Europe, not to mention for financial markets.
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What could the UK general election mean for the pound?

UK citizens head to the ballots on July 4 Opinion polls point to a Labour Party victory Political stability could initially benefit the pound But BoE rate cut bets could prove negative in the longer run   How it works On July 4, Britons will head to the ballots to vote in a general election, with opinion polls suggesting that they will end 14 years of Conservative rule.
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Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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Volatility skyrockets in FX and stock markets - Volatility Watch

Euro and pound pairs are very volatile but for different reasons Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin seems quiet Volatility in euro crosses has picked up as the region suffers from political instability following the EU elections and fears of a renewed debt crisis.
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Stock markets and football sometimes mix well

The 2024 European Football Championship starts today History points to strong stock market performance for the host country Major sporting events held in the eurozone could boost growth ECB to monitor consumer sentiment more closely With the market digesting the latest developments, it is time for football on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
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After Macron’s election gamble, is political risk a new headwind for the euro?

Snap elections in France spur panic in euro and French stock market Doubts about Germany’s coalition add to euro’s woes Is political instability about to become a persistent risk for the euro? Europe steers to the right Financial markets don’t usually pay so much attention to elections for the European Parliament, as national governments are often seen as the bigger force in setting EU policy.
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Volatility surges across the board – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs are very volatile after strong NFP report Volatility in gold and silver ticks up, oil swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump amid correction fears Volatility in dollar crosses has picked up as the stronger-than-expected NFP report dialed back rate cut expectations, while investors are bracing for the FOMC meeting and the CPI print later this week. Euro pairs are in a similar position after the EU elections sparked a wave of politically instabili
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Could stronger US data force a Fed rate cut?

Markets crave weaker US data to support their rate cut expectations Strong data this week could cause an acute market reaction The Fed might find it easier to act if financial stability is under threat The key question in the market participants’ minds is when the Fed is going to start easing its monetary policy stance. The year started with the market pricing in at least five rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, but with inflation remaining above 3% since July 2023, expectations have t
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Volatility ticks up in commodity and stock markets – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a quiet mood despite upcoming rate decisions Volatility in oil skyrockets, gold swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump as they ease from record highs Euro/dollar and euro/pound volatilities have been in the middle of their 30-day range, even though markets are bracing for the first interest rate cut by the ECB since 2016 on its Thursday meeting.
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Euro suffers when ECB announces the first rate cut of the cycle

ECB prepares to cut rates for the first time ahead of the Fed History points to strong possibility of back-to-back rate cuts Both the euro and German DAX tend to underperform on meeting day The ECB is on the brink of announcing its first rate cut since March 2016 as the overall rhetoric from ECB officials leaves little doubt about next week’s rate decision, with even the most hawkish members of the Governing council acknowledging the need for rate cuts.
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Has the pound rally run its course?

Pound gains as BoE seen cutting rates late Economy improves but inflation may further slow A Labor victory could make the BoE’s job easier As rate cuts come forward, pound may weaken Sticky core inflation weighs on rate cut bets We are nearly halfway through 2024 and the pound is holding the first place among the major currencies in terms of year-to-date performance.
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OPEC+ supply cuts to stay, but patience might start running out

OPEC+ oil producers might extend current supply cuts on Sunday June 2 Deeper cuts could be acceptable by major members but probably not for long Plans for capacity increases might cause some divisions within the group Geopolitical tensions, China outlook, and Fed rate cut path to move oil prices too   An agreement seems to be on the table already OPEC oil producers and their allies including Russia postponed their 188th gathering for a day to Sunday June 2 and switched from an
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Low volatility across the board besides Bitcoin – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a relatively quiet mood Volatility in Bitcoin and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility despite rally to record highs Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively over the past week as markets are bracing for inflation data both from the US and Eurozone this week. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains muted even though the Japanese currency is trading near historical lows against its major peers, while the latest downbeat inflation data out
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Could developments in Iran and Saudi Arabia turn the tide for oil?

Iran is still quiet about reasons behind the helicopter accident Saudi Arabia’s King health scare turns focus on Crown Prince Oil still under pressure; a new catalyst could reverse the recent trend Iranian Presidential elections to be held on June 28 News of the helicopter accident, which resulted in the loss of several senior Iranian officials including President Raisi, caused a sudden chill in market participants.
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Commodities' volatility jumps due to geopolitics – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility eases aggressively Volatility in gold and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility amidst weekly gains Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively as the market is adjusting to a quieter data calendar that nevertheless includes a plethora of Fed speakers. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate as market participants, especially in dollar/yen, appear unwilling to further provoke the BoJ and risk significant losses.
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Fed rate expectations whipsawed by Fed speakers and the US CPI

It has been a rollercoaster period for Fed rate cut expectations Sticky US inflation is keeping the market on its toes Numerous Fed speakers this week; market sensitive to hawkish comments Dollar’s 2024 gains dented despite divergent monetary policy outlooks The year started with the market firmly believing that the Fed would deliver six rate cuts during 2024 on the back of an aggressive slowdown in inflation, which has not materialized up to now.
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Can gold climb to a new record high?

Gold pulls back after hitting record high near $2430 Retreat remains short-lived as geopolitical risks escalate But demand from China seems to be slowing Yet, the chances for fresh advances remain elevated   Geopolitics among the main drivers After hitting a record high at around $2,430 on April 12, gold entered a corrective phase due to the easing of geopolitical tensions at the time allowing investors to continue offloading safe-haven positions.
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Higher euro/dollar volatility ahead of US CPI report – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar enjoys strong volatility ahead of key data releases Gold and silver see higher volatility amidst muted price rally Volatility drops in US equities as risk appetite returns Euro/dollar volatility has jumped higher as the market is preparing for some key US data prints. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate after the recent Japanese interventions, with market participants trying to avoid further provoking the BoJ at this stage.
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